{"id":8916,"date":"2025-07-14T21:28:11","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T19:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/?p=8916"},"modified":"2025-07-16T15:34:52","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T13:34:52","slug":"analiza-rynku-aluminium-lipiec-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/en\/aluminium-market-analysis-july-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Aluminium Market Analysis - July 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"8916\" class=\"elementor elementor-8916\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f16a785 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f16a785\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-14befaf\" data-id=\"14befaf\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3f87261 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3f87261\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-76bd135\" data-id=\"76bd135\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b12a520 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b12a520\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Several months have passed since my last analysis of the aluminium market. This raises the natural question: has anything changed, what is currently happening in the market and what are the forecasts for the near future? Is it worth <strong>invest in aluminium<\/strong> and wait for prices to rise, or be cautious? What about <a href=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/en\/purchase-of-steel-scrap\/\">scrap metal prices<\/a>casting alloys, rims, as well as so-called premium aluminium - such as profiles, food grade aluminium or other homogeneous alloys? The final investment decisions remain with you, but below are my current observations and forecasts.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7c552fa elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7c552fa\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-e4b4372\" data-id=\"e4b4372\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-df33d1a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"df33d1a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2>Premium aluminium market<\/h2><p>Analysing<strong> premium aluminium market<\/strong>, it is important to look beyond European foundry prices. Of key importance here are:<\/p><ul><li><strong>price of primary aluminium<\/strong> (primary aluminium),<\/li><li>the cost of its manufacture,<\/li><li>and, in the longer term, implemented <strong>CBAM system<\/strong>, or carbon footprint charges for aluminium imported from outside the EU.<\/li><\/ul><p>In my view, in the next 2-3 months there is a real <strong>risk of falling premium aluminium prices<\/strong>. Currently, the premiums offered by foundries for premium scrap exceed by <strong>approx. 70 EUR\/t<\/strong> price of the original goose. It is worth asking the question: <em>why do foundries pay more for scrap than for pure aluminium with guaranteed chemical composition and certificates?<\/em> The answer: they are trying to reduce CO\u2082 emissions and align their products with the requirements of the 'green industry'. However, financial pressures can quickly verify these ambitions - if margins fall below the expected level of owners.<\/p><p>In addition, the demand situation is unstable, with many sectors, especially construction, in crisis. This has a direct impact on the demand for profiles, sheets and other aluminium-based products.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-dd4bbd6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"dd4bbd6\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-da70e6e\" data-id=\"da70e6e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e6aa289 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e6aa289\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>As for the possible <strong>the fall in the price of primary aluminium on the LME<\/strong> - there is still room for reductions. Depending on the energy source and production region, <strong>the cost of producing 1 tonne of aluminium varies between USD 1450 and USD 2300<\/strong>. For comparison - the price of primary gooseberries in Rotterdam after premium and duty is now in excess of EUR 2800\/t.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ee27d8a\" data-id=\"ee27d8a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9ac3427 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"9ac3427\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Koszt-produkcji-al-pierwotnego.jpg\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"619\" height=\"310\" src=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Koszt-produkcji-al-pierwotnego.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-8919\" alt=\"Production cost of primary aluminium\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Koszt-produkcji-al-pierwotnego.jpg 619w, https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Koszt-produkcji-al-pierwotnego-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Koszt-produkcji-al-pierwotnego-18x9.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 619px) 100vw, 619px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Production cost of primary aluminium<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-b1a5e25 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"b1a5e25\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-43352b6\" data-id=\"43352b6\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-41dbced elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"41dbced\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Aluminium market analysis<\/h3><p>Considering:<\/p><ul><li>holiday restrictions on the supply of scrap metal,<\/li><li>reduced foundry activity,<\/li><li>and the general economic downturn,<\/li><\/ul><p>I expect that premium scrap prices during the holiday season will be linked to the level of LME HG quotations. After the holiday season, foundries can be expected to start reducing premiums to narrow the gap between scrap and primary aluminium.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7ac522a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7ac522a\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-fb99a58\" data-id=\"fb99a58\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fbb10c3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fbb10c3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2>Aluminium market for the production of cast alloys<\/h2><p><strong>Foundry alloy market<\/strong> is currently characterised by a relative stabilisation of goose prices, but with a clear lack of demand. The key producers in Poland have untapped production potential and are struggling with a limited number of orders. The market is heavily dependent on the automotive industry, the condition of which - especially for combustion vehicles - can hardly be considered good.<\/p><p>At the same time, it is worth looking at <strong>prices of alloying elements<\/strong>, particularly silicon, which is an important component of casting alloys. W <strong>2025<\/strong> Its prices have fallen by several to several per cent, depending on the source.<\/p><h3>In addition to raw material prices, the situation is also influenced by:<\/h3><ul><li>energy and gas costs,<\/li><li>scrap supply,<\/li><li>and the general health of European industry.<\/li><\/ul><p>The summer season is traditionally associated with reduced production activity, holiday breaks and weaker demand. For this reason, we believe that prices for rims, plastics and cast alloys will gradually decrease during the summer holidays. The magnitude of these changes will mainly depend on scrap availability.<\/p><h2>How to make money from Aluminium in a Falling Price Environment?<\/h2><p>In an expected situation <strong>the fall in prices<\/strong>, a strategy of caution seems the most sensible. I propose:<\/p><ul><li>build a safe margin,<\/li><li>avoid speculation,<\/li><li>sell material on an ongoing basis, even in smaller batches,<br \/>rather than hoarding it in the hope of increases that may not come.<\/li><\/ul><p>It is better to operate with liquidity and flexibility than to run the risk of losses from a sudden market collapse.<\/p><h4>Summary<\/h4><p><strong>The aluminium market<\/strong> faces many challenges today - from regulatory changes (CBAM), to environmental pressures, to the economic downturn and the crisis in demand-critical industries. In the short term, I do not foresee sharp price increases. Rather, I expect stabilisation or declines, both in the premium aluminium and cast alloy markets. I would rather expect significant changes towards the end of IQ2026 after the CBAM levies (\u20ac60-80\/tonne) come in.<\/p><p>Beyond substantive analyses, we need to remember politics, tariffs, wars. They can turn the tables upside down.<\/p><p>14.07.2025 - RM<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Several months have passed since my last analysis of the aluminium market. This raises a natural question: has anything changed, what is currently happening in the market and what are the forecasts for the near future? Is it worth investing in aluminium today and waiting for prices to rise, or to be cautious? What about scrap prices,...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8923,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aktualnosci"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Analiza Rynku Aluminium \u2013 Lipiec 2025 - RMC Polska<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/en\/aluminium-market-analysis-july-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analiza Rynku Aluminium \u2013 Lipiec 2025 - RMC Polska\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Od czasu mojej ostatniej analizy rynku aluminium min\u0119\u0142o ju\u017c kilka miesi\u0119cy. 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W zwi\u0105zku z tym pojawia si\u0119 naturalne pytanie: czy co\u015b si\u0119 zmieni\u0142o, co obecnie dzieje si\u0119 na rynku i jakie s\u0105 prognozy na najbli\u017csz\u0105 przysz\u0142o\u015b\u0107? Czy warto dzi\u015b inwestowa\u0107 w aluminium i czeka\u0107 na wzrost cen, czy te\u017c zachowa\u0107 ostro\u017cno\u015b\u0107? 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