{"id":8769,"date":"2025-04-16T23:53:19","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T21:53:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/?p=8769"},"modified":"2025-04-16T23:53:19","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T21:53:19","slug":"%d0%b0%d0%bd%d0%b0%d0%bb%d0%b8%d0%b7-%d1%80%d1%8b%d0%bd%d0%ba%d0%b0-%d0%b0%d0%bb%d1%8e%d0%bc%d0%b8%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%8f-%d0%b2-2025-%d0%b3%d0%be%d0%b4%d1%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/ru\/analiza-zlomu-aluminium-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0420\u044b\u043d\u043e\u043a \u0430\u043b\u044e\u043c\u0438\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0432 2025 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0443: \u0432\u043b\u0438\u044f\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0448\u043b\u0438\u043d, LME \u0438 \u0440\u043e\u0442\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0434\u0430\u043c\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0438\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u0446\u0435\u043d\u044b \u043d\u0430 \u043b\u043e\u043c"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Rok 2025 na rynku aluminium rozpocz\u0105\u0142 si\u0119 przewidywalnie i bez wi\u0119kszych zawirowa\u0144. Cena na skupie aluminium<\/a> od listopada do ko\u0144ca stycznia utrzymywa\u0142y si\u0119 na stabilnym, relatywnie wysokim poziomie. Handel z\u0142omem przebiega\u0142 p\u0142ynnie \u2013 zar\u00f3wno zakup, jak i sprzeda\u017c odbywa\u0142y si\u0119 bez zak\u0142\u00f3ce\u0144, co zapewnia\u0142o ci\u0105g\u0142o\u015b\u0107 operacji na rynku z\u0142omowym.<\/span><\/p>

Sytuacja uleg\u0142a zmianie po wyborach prezydenckich w USA. Zapowiedzi wprowadzenia ce\u0142 przez prezydenta Donalda Trumpa wywo\u0142a\u0142y niepok\u00f3j na rynkach. Wdro\u017cenie ce\u0142, a nast\u0119pnie ich zawieszenie w kwietniu, spowodowa\u0142o gwa\u0142towny spadek cen aluminium \u2013 zar\u00f3wno na LME, jak i w punktach skupu z\u0142omu<\/a> oraz w odlewniach aluminium.<\/p>

Analiza z\u0142om\u00f3w aluminiowych<\/h2>

Analizuj\u0105c obecn\u0105 sytuacj\u0119, warto wyr\u00f3\u017cni\u0107 dwie g\u0142\u00f3wne grupy z\u0142om\u00f3w aluminiowych:<\/p>

Z\u0142omy \u201epremium\u201d<\/b><\/h3>

To z\u0142omy o jednorodnym sk\u0142adzie chemicznym, wykorzystywane do produkcji materia\u0142\u00f3w wymagaj\u0105cych bardzo czystego aluminium pierwotnego lub wyselekcjonowanego z\u0142omu jednego gatunku, np. sektor, linka, felga, profil, AlMg itd.<\/p>

Z\u0142omy pod produkcj\u0119 stop\u00f3w odlewniczych<\/b><\/h3>

S\u0105 to zazwyczaj mieszanki r\u00f3\u017cnych gatunk\u00f3w z\u0142omu, np. plastyka, odlew, miksy poprodukcyjne itp.<\/p>

Ceny skupu z\u0142omu aluminium \u2013 listopad 2024 do 16 kwietnia 2025 na przyk\u0142adzie plastyki, odlewu i sektora.<\/b><\/p>

W okresie od listopada 2024<\/b> do marca 2025<\/b> obserwowali\u015bmy jedynie niewielkie wahania cen z\u0142omu. Natomiast w kwietniu pojawi\u0142y si\u0119 ju\u017c wyra\u017ane zmiany w cenach skupu. Zmiany te s\u0105 \u015bci\u015ble powi\u0105zane z sytuacj\u0105 na gie\u0142dzie LME.<\/p>

<\/p>

Zmiana cen Al. na LM z podzia\u0142em na HG i AA<\/p>

<\/p>

Wyja\u015bnienie termin\u00f3w:<\/span><\/b><\/p>

Al HG (High Grade)<\/span><\/b> \u2013 to czyste aluminium (najcz\u0119\u015bciej 99.7%), stosowane g\u0142\u00f3wnie w przemy\u015ble, np. elektrycznym, opakowaniowym, budowlanym.<\/span><\/p>

Aluminium Alloy<\/span><\/b> \u2013 to stop aluminium ADC12 (46000, 226) kt\u00f3re zawieraj\u0105 domieszki innych metali (np. mied\u017a, cynk, magnez, krzem).<\/span><\/p>

Na podstawie obserwacji wykres\u00f3w mo\u017cemy stwierdzi\u0107, \u017ce ceny z\u0142om\u00f3w odlewniczych wykazuj\u0105 korelacj\u0119 z notowaniami aluminium na LME. W przypadku z\u0142om\u00f3w \u201epremium\u201d wp\u0142yw cen LME r\u00f3wnie\u017c jest widoczny, cho\u0107 ich wycena uwzgl\u0119dnia dodatkowe czynniki.<\/p>

Na przyk\u0142adzie aluminium Sektor widzimy, \u017ce cena aluminium spad\u0142a o warto\u015b\u0107 spadku aluminium HG na LME<\/p>

My\u015blimy, \u017ce jest to tymczasowe zjawisko i w d\u0142u\u017cszym czasie, je\u015bli nic si\u0119 nie zmieni mo\u017cemy oczekiwa\u0107 dalszego spadku cen z\u0142om\u00f3w premium i moim zdaniem b\u0119dzie to spowodowane cena g\u0105ski pierwotnej (wysoko\u015bci\u0105 premii) na gie\u0142dzie w Rotterdamie.<\/p>

<\/p>

Wyja\u015bnienie termin\u00f3w:<\/span><\/b><\/p>

Duty-Unpaid<\/span><\/b>: Premie bez op\u0142aconego c\u0142a, obowi\u0105zuj\u0105ce dla metalu\u00a0sk\u0142adowanego w magazynach w Rotterdamie, kt\u00f3ry nie zosta\u0142 jeszcze odprawiony\u00a0celnie.<\/span><\/p>

Duty-Paid<\/span><\/b>: Premie z op\u0142aconym c\u0142em, dotycz\u0105ce metalu ju\u017c odprawionego celnie i\u00a0gotowego do dalszej dystrybucji w Unii Europejskie<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Wp\u0142yw rynku Rotterdamu na ceny z\u0142omu \u201epremium\u201d<\/b><\/h2>

Odlewnie produkuj\u0105ce komponenty ze stop\u00f3w \u201epremium\u201d (np. sektor, profil, felga) analizuj\u0105 op\u0142acalno\u015b\u0107 zakupu z\u0142omu wzgl\u0119dem zakupu g\u0105sek pierwotnych. G\u0142\u00f3wn\u0105 r\u00f3\u017cnic\u0105 jest jako\u015b\u0107 surowca \u2013 z\u0142om mo\u017ce by\u0107 zanieczyszczony i nie gwarantuje jednorodnego sk\u0142adu chemicznego, natomiast g\u0105ski pierwotne s\u0105 bardzo czyste i obj\u0119te gwarancj\u0105 sk\u0142adu.<\/p>

Poniewa\u017c z\u0142om \u201epremium\u201d <\/b>pe\u0142ni funkcj\u0119 substytutu g\u0105sek pierwotnych, jego cena b\u0119dzie bezpo\u015brednio zale\u017cna od ich notowa\u0144. Spadaj\u0105ce premie za g\u0105ski sugeruj\u0105 spadki tak\u017ce dla z\u0142om\u00f3w \u201epremium\u201d. Ten trend ju\u017c teraz obserwowany w cz\u0119\u015bci odlewni \u2013 je\u015bli sytuacja w Rotterdamie si\u0119 nie zmieni, dalsze obni\u017cki s\u0105 prawdopodobne.<\/p>

Prognozy dla z\u0142om\u00f3w odlewniczych<\/b><\/h2>

Je\u015bli chodzi o z\u0142omy wykorzystywane do produkcji stop\u00f3w odlewniczych, przewidujemy wzgl\u0119dn\u0105 stabilizacj\u0119 w najbli\u017cszych 30 dniach, z mo\u017cliw\u0105 lekk\u0105 korekt\u0105 w g\u00f3r\u0119. Warto zauwa\u017cy\u0107, \u017ce ceny g\u0105sek aluminiowych produkowanych przez odlewnie nie spad\u0142y tak gwa\u0142townie, jak ceny z\u0142omu. Dlatego te\u017c w najbli\u017cszych dniach mo\u017cna spodziewa\u0107 si\u0119 delikatnego odbicia \u2013 oczywi\u015bcie przy za\u0142o\u017ceniu, \u017ce poda\u017c z\u0142omu pozostanie ograniczona.<\/p>

Sprawd\u017a wi\u0119cej na stronie: Skup aluminium<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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RM 16.04.2025<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rok 2025 na rynku aluminium rozpocz\u0105\u0142 si\u0119 przewidywalnie i bez wi\u0119kszych zawirowa\u0144. Cena na skupie aluminium od listopada do ko\u0144ca stycznia utrzymywa\u0142y si\u0119 na stabilnym, relatywnie wysokim poziomie. Handel z\u0142omem przebiega\u0142 p\u0142ynnie \u2013 zar\u00f3wno zakup, jak i sprzeda\u017c odbywa\u0142y si\u0119 bez zak\u0142\u00f3ce\u0144, co zapewnia\u0142o ci\u0105g\u0142o\u015b\u0107 operacji na rynku z\u0142omowym. Sytuacja uleg\u0142a zmianie po wyborach prezydenckich […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aktualnosci"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRynek aluminium 2025 \u2013 ceny skupu, analiza, prognozy - RMC Polska<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/ru\/\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437-\u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0430-\u0430\u043b\u044e\u043c\u0438\u043d\u0438\u044f-\u0432-2025-\u0433\u043e\u0434\u0443\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rynek aluminium 2025 \u2013 ceny skupu, analiza, prognozy - RMC Polska\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Rok 2025 na rynku aluminium rozpocz\u0105\u0142 si\u0119 przewidywalnie i bez wi\u0119kszych zawirowa\u0144. 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Sytuacja uleg\u0142a zmianie po wyborach prezydenckich […]","og_url":"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/ru\/\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437-\u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0430-\u0430\u043b\u044e\u043c\u0438\u043d\u0438\u044f-\u0432-2025-\u0433\u043e\u0434\u0443\/","og_site_name":"RMC Polska","article_published_time":"2025-04-16T21:53:19+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2265,"height":2560,"url":"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/IMG_2336-scaled-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"rmc@dmin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"\u041d\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0430\u043d\u043e \u0430\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043c":"rmc@dmin","\u041f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u044f \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0447\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f":"4 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