{"id":8916,"date":"2025-07-14T21:28:11","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T19:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/?p=8916"},"modified":"2025-07-14T21:28:11","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T19:28:11","slug":"analiza-rynku-aluminium-lipiec-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/ru\/analiza-rynku-aluminium-lipiec-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Analiza Rynku Aluminium \u2013 Lipiec 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"8916\" class=\"elementor elementor-8916\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f16a785 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f16a785\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-14befaf\" data-id=\"14befaf\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3f87261 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3f87261\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-76bd135\" data-id=\"76bd135\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b12a520 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b12a520\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Od czasu mojej ostatniej analizy rynku aluminium min\u0119\u0142o ju\u017c kilka miesi\u0119cy. W zwi\u0105zku z tym pojawia si\u0119 naturalne pytanie: czy co\u015b si\u0119 zmieni\u0142o, co obecnie dzieje si\u0119 na rynku i jakie s\u0105 prognozy na najbli\u017csz\u0105 przysz\u0142o\u015b\u0107? Czy warto dzi\u015b <strong>inwestowa\u0107 w aluminium<\/strong> i czeka\u0107 na wzrost cen, czy te\u017c zachowa\u0107 ostro\u017cno\u015b\u0107? Co z <a href=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/ru\/%d1%81%d1%8b%d1%80%d1%8c%d0%b5\/zlom-stalowy\/\">cenami z\u0142omu<\/a>, stop\u00f3w odlewniczych, felg, a tak\u017ce tzw. aluminium premium \u2013 jak profile, aluminium spo\u017cywcze czy inne homogeniczne stopy? Ostateczne decyzje inwestycyjne pozostaj\u0105 po Waszej stronie, natomiast poni\u017cej przedstawiam moje aktualne obserwacje i prognozy.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7c552fa elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7c552fa\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-e4b4372\" data-id=\"e4b4372\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-df33d1a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"df33d1a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2>Rynek Aluminium Premium<\/h2><p>Analizuj\u0105c<strong> rynek aluminium premium<\/strong>, nale\u017cy spojrze\u0107 szerzej ni\u017c tylko na ceny europejskich odlewni. Kluczowe znaczenie maj\u0105 tutaj:<\/p><ul><li><strong>cena aluminium pierwotnego<\/strong> (primary aluminium),<\/li><li>koszt jego wytworzenia,<\/li><li>oraz w d\u0142u\u017cszym horyzoncie czasowym \u2013 wdra\u017cany <strong>system CBAM<\/strong>, czyli op\u0142aty za \u015blad w\u0119glowy dla aluminium importowanego spoza UE.<\/li><\/ul><p>W mojej ocenie, w perspektywie najbli\u017cszych 2\u20133 miesi\u0119cy istnieje realne <strong>ryzyko spadku cen aluminium premium<\/strong>. Obecnie premie oferowane przez odlewnie za z\u0142om premium przekraczaj\u0105 o <strong>ok. 70 EUR\/t<\/strong> cen\u0119 g\u0105ski pierwotnej. Warto zada\u0107 pytanie: <em>dlaczego odlewnie p\u0142ac\u0105 wi\u0119cej za z\u0142om ni\u017c za czyste aluminium z gwarantowanym sk\u0142adem chemicznym i certyfikatami?<\/em> Odpowied\u017a: staraj\u0105 si\u0119 ograniczy\u0107 emisj\u0119 CO\u2082 i dostosowa\u0107 swoje produkty do wymog\u00f3w &#8222;zielonego przemys\u0142u&#8221;. Jednak presja finansowa mo\u017ce te ambicje szybko zweryfikowa\u0107 \u2013 je\u015bli mar\u017ce spadn\u0105 poni\u017cej oczekiwanego poziomu w\u0142a\u015bcicieli.<\/p><p>Dodatkowo, sytuacja popytowa jest niestabilna \u2013 wiele sektor\u00f3w, w tym szczeg\u00f3lnie budownictwo, znajduje si\u0119 w kryzysie. Ma to bezpo\u015bredni wp\u0142yw na zapotrzebowanie na profile, blachy oraz inne produkty bazuj\u0105ce na aluminium.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-dd4bbd6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"dd4bbd6\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-da70e6e\" data-id=\"da70e6e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e6aa289 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e6aa289\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Co do mo\u017cliwego <strong>spadku cen aluminium pierwotnego na LME<\/strong> \u2013 jest jeszcze przestrze\u0144 do obni\u017cek. W zale\u017cno\u015bci od \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142a energii i regionu produkcji, <strong>koszt wytworzenia 1 tony aluminium waha si\u0119 mi\u0119dzy 1450 USD a 2300 USD<\/strong>. Dla por\u00f3wnania \u2013 cena g\u0105ski pierwotnej w Rotterdamie po doliczeniu premii i c\u0142a przekracza obecnie 2800 EUR\/t.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ee27d8a\" data-id=\"ee27d8a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9ac3427 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"9ac3427\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Koszt-produkcji-al-pierwotnego.jpg\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Koszt produkcji al pierwotnego\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6ODkxOSwidXJsIjoiaHR0cHM6XC9cL3JtY3BvbHNrYS5wbFwvd3AtY29udGVudFwvdXBsb2Fkc1wvMjAyNVwvMDdcL0tvc3p0LXByb2R1a2NqaS1hbC1waWVyd290bmVnby5qcGcifQ%3D%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"619\" height=\"310\" src=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Koszt-produkcji-al-pierwotnego.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-8919\" alt=\"Koszt produkcji aluminium pierwotnego\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Koszt-produkcji-al-pierwotnego.jpg 619w, https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Koszt-produkcji-al-pierwotnego-300x150.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 619px) 100vw, 619px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Koszt produkcji aluminium pierwotnego<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-b1a5e25 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"b1a5e25\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-43352b6\" data-id=\"43352b6\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-41dbced elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"41dbced\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Analiza rynku aluminium<\/h3><p>Bior\u0105c pod uwag\u0119:<\/p><ul><li>wakacyjne ograniczenia poda\u017cy z\u0142omu,<\/li><li>zmniejszon\u0105 aktywno\u015b\u0107 odlewni,<\/li><li>i og\u00f3lne spowolnienie gospodarcze,<\/li><\/ul><p>spodziewam si\u0119, \u017ce ceny z\u0142om\u00f3w premium w okresie wakacyjnym b\u0119d\u0105 powi\u0105zane z poziomem notowa\u0144 LME HG. Po sezonie urlopowym mo\u017cna oczekiwa\u0107, \u017ce odlewnie zaczn\u0105 obni\u017ca\u0107 premie, by zmniejszy\u0107 r\u00f3\u017cnic\u0119 mi\u0119dzy z\u0142omem a aluminium pierwotnym.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7ac522a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7ac522a\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-fb99a58\" data-id=\"fb99a58\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fbb10c3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fbb10c3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2>Rynek Aluminium do Produkcji Stop\u00f3w Odlewniczych<\/h2><p><strong>Rynek stop\u00f3w odlewniczych<\/strong> cechuje si\u0119 obecnie relatywn\u0105 stabilizacj\u0105 cen g\u0105ski, jednak z wyra\u017anym brakiem popytu. Kluczowi producenci w Polsce dysponuj\u0105 niewykorzystanym potencja\u0142em produkcyjnym i borykaj\u0105 si\u0119 z ograniczon\u0105 liczb\u0105 zam\u00f3wie\u0144. Rynek ten jest silnie uzale\u017cniony od bran\u017cy motoryzacyjnej, kt\u00f3rej kondycj\u0119 \u2013 zw\u0142aszcza w zakresie pojazd\u00f3w spalinowych \u2013 trudno uzna\u0107 za dobr\u0105.<\/p><p>Jednocze\u015bnie warto przyjrze\u0107 si\u0119 <strong>cenom dodatk\u00f3w stopowych<\/strong>, w szczeg\u00f3lno\u015bci krzemu, kt\u00f3ry stanowi istotny sk\u0142adnik stop\u00f3w odlewniczych. W <strong>2025 roku<\/strong> jego ceny spad\u0142y od kilku do kilkunastu procent, w zale\u017cno\u015bci od \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142a pochodzenia.<\/p><h3>Opr\u00f3cz cen surowc\u00f3w, wp\u0142yw na sytuacj\u0119 maj\u0105 tak\u017ce:<\/h3><ul><li>koszty energii i gazu,<\/li><li>poda\u017c z\u0142omu,<\/li><li>oraz og\u00f3lna kondycja europejskiego przemys\u0142u.<\/li><\/ul><p>Sezon letni tradycyjnie wi\u0105\u017ce si\u0119 z ograniczeniem aktywno\u015bci produkcyjnej, przerwami urlopowymi oraz s\u0142abszym popytem. Z tego wzgl\u0119du uwa\u017camy, \u017ce w wakacje ceny felg, plastyki oraz stop\u00f3w odlewniczych b\u0119d\u0105 stopniowo spada\u0107. Skala tych zmian b\u0119dzie zale\u017ca\u0142a g\u0142\u00f3wnie od dost\u0119pno\u015bci z\u0142omu.<\/p><h2>Jak Zarabia\u0107 na Aluminium w Warunkach Spadaj\u0105cych Cen?<\/h2><p>W sytuacji oczekiwanego <strong>spadku cen<\/strong>, strategia ostro\u017cno\u015bci wydaje si\u0119 najbardziej rozs\u0105dna. Ja proponuj\u0119:<\/p><ul><li>budowa\u0107 bezpieczn\u0105 mar\u017c\u0119,<\/li><li>unika\u0107 spekulacji,<\/li><li>sprzedawa\u0107 materia\u0142 na bie\u017c\u0105co, nawet w mniejszych partiach,<br \/>zamiast gromadzi\u0107 go w nadziei na wzrosty, kt\u00f3re mog\u0105 nie nadej\u015b\u0107.<\/li><\/ul><p>Lepiej dzia\u0142a\u0107 z zachowaniem p\u0142ynno\u015bci i elastyczno\u015bci ni\u017c ponosi\u0107 ryzyko strat zwi\u0105zanych z nag\u0142ym za\u0142amaniem rynku.<\/p><h4>Podsumowuj\u0105c<\/h4><p><strong>Rynek aluminium<\/strong> stoi dzi\u015b przed wieloma wyzwaniami \u2013 od zmian regulacyjnych (CBAM), przez presj\u0119 \u015brodowiskow\u0105, po spowolnienie gospodarcze i kryzys w bran\u017cach kluczowych dla popytu. W kr\u00f3tkim terminie nie przewiduj\u0119 gwa\u0142townych wzrost\u00f3w cen. Raczej spodziewam si\u0119 stabilizacji lub spadk\u00f3w, zar\u00f3wno na rynku aluminium premium, jak i stop\u00f3w odlewniczych. Istotnych zmian spodziewa\u0142bym si\u0119 raczej pod koniec IQ2026 po wej\u015bciu op\u0142at CBAM (60-80 euro\/tona).<\/p><p>Poza merytorycznymi analizami musimy pami\u0119ta\u0107 o polityce, c\u0142ach, wojnach. One mog\u0105 wywr\u00f3ci\u0107 stolik do g\u00f3ry nogami.<\/p><p>14.07.2025 &#8211; RM<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Od czasu mojej ostatniej analizy rynku aluminium min\u0119\u0142o ju\u017c kilka miesi\u0119cy. W zwi\u0105zku z tym pojawia si\u0119 naturalne pytanie: czy co\u015b si\u0119 zmieni\u0142o, co obecnie dzieje si\u0119 na rynku i jakie s\u0105 prognozy na najbli\u017csz\u0105 przysz\u0142o\u015b\u0107? Czy warto dzi\u015b inwestowa\u0107 w aluminium i czeka\u0107 na wzrost cen, czy te\u017c zachowa\u0107 ostro\u017cno\u015b\u0107? Co z cenami z\u0142omu, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8923,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aktualnosci"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Analiza Rynku Aluminium \u2013 Lipiec 2025 - RMC Polska<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/rmcpolska.pl\/ru\/analiza-rynku-aluminium-lipiec-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analiza Rynku Aluminium \u2013 Lipiec 2025 - RMC Polska\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Od czasu mojej ostatniej analizy rynku aluminium min\u0119\u0142o ju\u017c kilka miesi\u0119cy. W zwi\u0105zku z tym pojawia si\u0119 naturalne pytanie: czy co\u015b si\u0119 zmieni\u0142o, co obecnie dzieje si\u0119 na rynku i jakie s\u0105 prognozy na najbli\u017csz\u0105 przysz\u0142o\u015b\u0107? Czy warto dzi\u015b inwestowa\u0107 w aluminium i czeka\u0107 na wzrost cen, czy te\u017c zachowa\u0107 ostro\u017cno\u015b\u0107? 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