What could be the lowest copper price on the LME?

I don't think there is a good answer to this question however, some conclusions can be drawn based on an examination of historical data and copper mining and refining prices.

Below are my thoughts after analysing industry data:

• The cost of extracting 1 tonne of copper in ore can vary depending on the time period and the region in which mining took place. The cost of copper extraction has fluctuated due to various factors such as mining technologies, geological conditions, copper content of the ore and economic policy (e.g. mineral tax).
• Examining the data for 2020-2022, it can be seen that the cost of extracting copper ore, depending on the aforementioned factors, ranged from $4,500 to $6,000 per tonne of copper found in the copper ore.
• To this must be added the cost of refining copper, which can vary depending on the technologies used for refining, energy prices and the location of the refinery. Copper refining is the process by which raw copper extracted from ore is purified and converted into pure metal in the form of cathode.
• The average cost of refining copper in 2022 was ~$1,200 per tonne.
• Given the above, it seems reasonable to conclude that the LME copper price should not be lower than $7200 per tonne in the long term.
• If the copper price remains below $7200 per tonne, some mines will become unprofitable, which in the long term will result in their closure and consequently a decrease in production and an increase in demand over supply.